Google Wars with Apple and Facebook

... of information about yourself. So far Ive told it more than Ive told Facebook or Twitter, heres my Google Profile. Why? Because its available to all of you and this data gets added all sorts of places in the Google ecosystem. It shows up on searches for my name at the bottom of the page, for instance.

2. Googles Social Circles Connections. This just turned on last week but most people in the industry have missed the importance of whats here. First, now you can see that Google is crawling not just its own profile info, but the networks were building in Twitter, FriendFeed, Digg, Flickr, LinkedIn, Last.fm, and other social networks. You cant see it, but the list its showing me is yards long. If youve filled in your Google Profile info, like I have, it knows a TON about you. If youve followed me on Google Chat (Im at scobleizer@gmail.com if you want to follow me) or Twitter or FriendFeed youll see my entry show up there.

What is next? Well, that Google Profile page is looking pretty lame, isnt it? What if Google added a news feed? What if they made an even better rolodex than the ones available anywhere else? Remember what happened when I got the Google Nexus One phone? I entered my email address and all my contacts instantly appeared. Oh, yeah, you didnt realize that Google was keeping all your contacts, did you?

You can see the battle being drawn right in front of you. This is why I believe FriendFeed decided to sell to Facebook. They knew this war was coming and they didnt stand a chance against this epic decade-long battle that is just beginning between Google and Facebook.

But thats just one front. Whats the other front?

Look at Techmeme right now. Whats the top story? One where Techcrunch is saying that Apple has another tablet coming. I love that everyone is giving Techcrunch heck for that, but Ive heard these rumors too. But look further and youll find this article where Techcrunch is pointing to a Google site that has a first taste of Google Chrome OS-based Tablet PCs.

Ive been hearing these rumors from friends in Asia who are working on a variety of machines for Googles new OS. Both netbook-style machines, which Steve Jobs says are crappy, but also slates that compete head on with the iPad.

Google is arrogant enough to take on Apple and Facebook in the same year.

So, who will come out ahead in this war? Believe it or not, Apple and Facebook will actually get stronger during this fight.

Already look at the PR weve been hearing the past month. Its been nothing but Apple and Google. Apple and Google. Apple and Google.

Wheres Microsoft? Wheres Nokia? Wheres RIM? Wheres Twitter? Wheres LinkedIn? These are the losers if the battle keeps being framed by Apple and Google and Google and Facebook.

But who else wins? Developers, developers, developers, developers. Why? Because Im hearing rumors that Twitter is trying to charge developers for access to its full-firehose feed. How much? I cant yet say because I havent confirmed the figures with Twitter but lets just say that the figures Im hearing are BIG. Six to eight figures big depending on the size of the company.

Now, what if Google turns on a microblogging/status message system like Facebook or Twitter have (already done on Google Chat, but I was thinking more like what Facebook looks like)? What happens if they also open up an application store (oh, already done on Android, or as they announced yesterday for business apps)? What happens if they give away access to these APIs for free instead of trying to charge developers tons of money?

Boom, boom, boom. Developers love having these kinds of platforms in competition to keep access up and pricing down.

How can Microsoft get noticed enough to be considered part of this war?

Steve Ballmer has to call in the Master Chief. You know, the guy in Halo. A new Halo is coming later this year (I saw a preview at CES and its pretty cool). Im hearing rumblings that Microsoft will use its Xbox Live service to get into both battlefields later this year (Microsoft has moved many top executives and engineers over to a new team designed to compete more effectively with Apples iPhone). One by bringing out a Zune phone. If it has Xbox Live and an Xbox gaming platform on it, look out. That would be HUGE. The other one by opening up its Xbox Live service to be more like Facebook. Xbox Live already has a marketplace and already has a social network thats very good and that most of us tech bloggers dont pay enough attention to. One problem: Im hearing from employees who work inside these teams that the political will to really develop a good Xbox-playing smartphone isnt there. If thats true, look for Microsoft to remain shut out of the battlefield and to remain a loser in the mobile space.

What can Nokia do?

I think the best shot Nokia has is its Maemo platform, but it alone isnt enough. It needs more. Id almost say that it needs to buy something like Twitter AND buy Palm. But both of those ideas are so ludicrous (or will be received that way inside Nokia) that they wont happen. Look for Nokia to continue to sell lots of stuff to the rest of the world but be locked out of the most profitable markets.

Research in Motion?

First RIM has to realize it has a problem. The minute some Chinese company develops a great Android-based phone with a great keyboard they will start to see lots of people shift away. But for now, because RIM has the best keyboards in the business, they dont need to really innovate too much. That said, Im starting to hear rumors that they are working on a dramatically different OS to compete with iPhone/iPad so itll be interesting to watch their moves. I still see them as losers, though, because Apple and Google are clearly taking away mindshare at minimum.

Anyway, its clear that Google is the most arrogant player on the field. They feel they can actually carry out a war with both Apple and Facebook and they feel they can win.

Personally Im cheering for Google. Why? Because between Apple, Facebook, and Google, Google is the most open, least controlling, and transparent company of the three.

Of course, tomorrow night Im going to an event at Facebook where they are showing off some new developer-focused stuff for PHP developers, so itll be interesting to watch all three of these companies battle over developers and mindshare. Its fun to be a tech blogger again!

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